Guides, analysis and commentary on IPOs, GMP and the Indian primary market.
70 IPOs listed in September 2026, led by the ₹22,562 crore NSE issue. Mainboard listings gained 10.7% at the median on day one; SME listings just 1.5%, with seven opening flat.
Since mid-2025 an SME IPO application must be two lots worth over ₹2 lakh, with no cut-off price and no cancelling. Here is what changed and how the 181 SME IPOs that listed in 2026 actually opened.
282 IPOs listed in India between January and 12 October 2026. Averages say Mainboard and SME paid about the same on listing day; the medians, 7.2% against 2.3%, say otherwise.
Using day-by-day data from 151 IPOs, we found Mainboard issues get just 7.3% of final subscription by day one, with 82.4% arriving on the closing day alone.
We measured how strongly QIB, HNI and Retail subscription each correlate with listing-day gains across 174 IPOs. QIB demand was the strongest predictor at 0.71, beating even the headline total subscription number.
We recomputed our Very Strong Signals to Very Weak Signals score using only pre-listing data for 48 tracked IPOs. Average listing gain fell from +47.5% for Very Strong Signals to -23.9% for Very Weak Signals.
The basis of allotment is the only document that reports how many people actually applied and how many were allotted. Here is how to read one, and what it reveals that subscription figures cannot.
Across 139 listings the average listing gain was 7.56%, but only 54.7% were profitable. SME issues averaged a higher gain than Mainboard while being no more likely to make money.
The usual 1 divided by subscription formula understates Big HNI allotment odds by roughly five times. A published basis of allotment shows B-HNI applicants were allotted at 9.59% where the formula predicted 1.99%.
IPOs subscribed under 5x lost money 72.5% of the time and averaged a 3.9% listing loss. Those above 100x were profitable 96.3% of the time and averaged a 39.8% gain. The relationship is far cleaner than GMP.