Why You Shouldn't Judge an IPO by Day One: How Subscription Really Builds
Using day-by-day data from 151 IPOs, we found Mainboard issues get just 7.3% of final subscription by day one, with 82.4% arriving on the closing day alone.
Guides, analysis and commentary on IPOs, GMP and the Indian primary market.
Using day-by-day data from 151 IPOs, we found Mainboard issues get just 7.3% of final subscription by day one, with 82.4% arriving on the closing day alone.
We measured how strongly QIB, HNI and Retail subscription each correlate with listing-day gains across 174 IPOs. QIB demand was the strongest predictor at 0.71, beating even the headline total subscription number.
We recomputed our Strong Subscribe to Strong Avoid score using only pre-listing data for 48 tracked IPOs. Average listing gain fell from +47.5% for Strong Subscribe to -23.9% for Strong Avoid.
The basis of allotment is the only document that reports how many people actually applied and how many were allotted. Here is how to read one, and what it reveals that subscription figures cannot.
Across 139 listings the average listing gain was 7.56%, but only 54.7% were profitable. SME issues averaged a higher gain than Mainboard while being no more likely to make money.
The usual 1 divided by subscription formula understates Big HNI allotment odds by roughly five times. A published basis of allotment shows B-HNI applicants were allotted at 9.59% where the formula predicted 1.99%.
IPOs subscribed under 5x lost money 72.5% of the time and averaged a 3.9% listing loss. Those above 100x were profitable 96.3% of the time and averaged a 39.8% gain. The relationship is far cleaner than GMP.
We compared the last grey market premium recorded before listing against the real listing price for 124 IPOs. GMP called the direction right 58.9% of the time overall, 75% on Mainboard and just 52.3% on SME.
Track all upcoming IPO in June and July 2026 with dates, price bands and listing details. CMR Green and Hexagon Nutrition have already listed on mainboard. Multiple SME issues are open every week. Reliance Jio, Zepto and PhonePe remain on the watchlist with no confirmed dates yet. Updated daily on IPO Cracker.
Track the complete SME IPO 2026 list with open, upcoming and recently listed issues. From January to June 2026, SME listings have stayed active across sectors like pharma, engineering and jewellery. Check price bands, lot sizes and GMP before applying. Updated daily on IPO Cracker.