Nifty May F&O rollovers hint at cautious stance; ONGC among stocks in focus

The Nifty May futures have surged over 1 per cent today tracking gains in the underlying Nifty. On Tuesday, the Nifty April futures settled with a 7.5 per cent gain on expiry.  However, going ahead, analysts flag the rollovers in Nifty futures have been below average thus suggesting a likely cautious stance by participants.  Here are the key takeaways from Axis Securities rollover report:  Nifty Rollover Analysis: The Nifty April series reached a 71.4 per cent transition rate, trailing both the 77.8 per cent prior expiry and the 72.3 per cent three-and-six-month averages, notes the brokerage firm.  "This deceleration indicates a cautious stance among participants, suggesting a slight hesitation to carry forward aggressive bets despite relatively stable benchmark conditions," Axis Securities said in the report.  Bank Nifty Rollover Analysis: On the contrary, Bank Nifty registered a 78.6 per cent rollover, significantly outperforming its quarterly and half-yearly benchmarks of 77.1 per cent and 76.5 per cent. While lower than the previous 86.0 per cent peak, the sustained strength above long-term historical norms signals resilient institutional conviction and a constructive outlook for the banking landscape.  Market-Wide Rollover Trends: Broad market participation intensified as rollovers climbed to 94.7 per cent, surpassing the previous 92.9 per cent and historical averages. This surge reflects robust appetite across mid and small-cap segments, suggesting a healthy migration of liquidity and high conviction among traders heading into the May series.  Rollover Cost: The cost of carry for Nifty moderated to 0.31 per cent from 0.48 per cent, while Bank Nifty dipped to 0.57 per cent from 0.76 per cent. These softening basis levels indicate diminished urgency from long-side participants, reflecting a more balanced and cost-efficient positioning environment for the incoming trading cycle.  Stocks with Increased Interest: KPIT Technologies, Sun Pharma, Lupin, NHPC and ONGC contracts saw enhanced transition activity compared to the prior month. Increased traction in these specific counters highlights concentrated buying interest and potential for sustained momentum.  Stocks with Decreased Interest: Vedanta, Tata Consumer, Adani Energy Solutions, S BI Life and NTPC witnessed a deceleration in carry-forward rates. This moderation implies a reduction in speculative interest or tactical profit-taking at elevated levels.  Disclaimer: Views and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.