Analysts have retained their ‘Buy’ ratings on Eternal stock, with marginal tweaks to share price targets, as the new-age company delivered largely in-line quarterly results for the March quarter (Q4FY26).
Notably, Eternal’s food delivery (FD) business continued to gain momentum in Q4FY26, while its quick commerce (QC) business, Blinkit, reiterated its ability “to balance aggressive blitz-scaling with disciplined unit economics”, despite intense competition.
Analysts said this is commendable and would help allay investor concerns about the company’s long-term growth. In this backdrop, their one-year target prices range from ₹300 to ₹400, implying up to 57.6 per cent upside potential in Eternal stock.
That said, the stock witnessed volatile moves on the BSE today. Eternal share price rose nearly 2 per cent to ₹265.25 per share in the intraday trade, before paring gains to hit a low of ₹253.
At 10:02 AM, the stock was up 1.4 per cent at ₹257.4 as against a 0.86 per cent rise in the benchmark BSE Sensex index. Around 4.45 million shares have changed hands on the counter, so far, compared to a two-week average volume of 2.37 million shares on the BSE.
Eternal Q4: Stable results, assured guidance
Eternal reported a consolidated net revenue of ₹17,200 crore in Q4FY26, clocking an increase of 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) and a whopping 196.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) came at ₹490 crore, up 32.1 per cent Q-o-Q and 575 per cent Y-o-Y, with Ebitda margin at 2.8 per cent.
Eternal’s Ebitda margin expanded 55 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q and 158 bps Y-o-Y.
The consolidated net profit surged 70.6 per cent Q-o-Q and 346.2 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹170 crore.
Eternal’s food delivery business
The net order value (NOV) of FD business grew 18.8 per cent Y-o-Y (down 0.9 per cent Q-o-Q) to
₹9,760 crore.
The segment’s adjusted revenue was ₹3,130 crore (up 2.4 per cent Q-o-Q/29.7 per cent Y-o-Y), and adjusted Ebitda increased 24.3 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹530 crore. As a percentage of NOV, the Ebitda was 5.5 per cent (up 10 bps Q-o-Q/30 bps Y-o-Y).
FD business’ Contribution margin (as a percentage of NOV) was 10.2 per cent (down 20 bps Q-o-Q/10 bps Y-o-Y).
Eternal’s Blinkit business
Blinkit’s NOV increased 8.2 per cent Q-o-Q/95.4 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹14,390 crore.
The adjusted revenue was ₹13,230 crore, rising 8 per cent Q-o-Q and 126 per cent Y-o-Y on a like for like (LFL) basis.
Contribution margin (as a percentage of NOV) was down 10 bps Q-o-Q/up 150 bps Y-o-Y to 5.4 per cent in Q4FY26.
Adjusted Ebitda margin (as percentage of NOV) was 0.3 per cent in Q4FY26 (vs. -2.4 per cent in
Q4FY25).
Should you ‘Buy’ Eternal shares? Here’s what brokerages say:
Nomura | Buy | Target price: ₹340 (cut from ₹380)
Zomato’s medium-to-longer-term target of 20-per cent NOV growth rests on modest market share gains and continued execution around improving affordability and offerings to customers.
Nomura expects Zomato to post 18 per cent Y-o-Y NOV growth with Contribution margin of 10.7-11 per cent (as % of NOV) and adjusted Ebitda margin of 5.7-6.5 per cent in FY27-28.
For Blinkit, Nomura said the segment’s growth hinges o increasing assortment expansion, geographic expansion and increasing demand density with maturity.
Blinkit, it believes, is staying away from irrational competition as highlighted by its profitability. It has lowered its NOV growth estimates for FY27-28 by 15 per cent for the segment.
Motilal Oswal | Buy | Target maintained: ₹340
MOFSL said the strong growth rebound guidance in Q1FY26 as well as over 60 per cent CAGR over the next three years, should allay market fears around saturation for the quick commerce business.
While growth is moderating off a high base (FY23-26 NOV CAGR at ~104 per cent), the commentary suggests demand is still building across cities, with no visible monthly transacting users (MTU) saturation yet.
It expects 70 per cent, 65 per cent, and 50 per cent NOV growth for FY27, FY28, and FY29, respectively.
ICICI Securities | Buy | Target maintained: ₹360
The management aims to achieve consolidated adjusted Ebitda of $1 billion by FY29. ICICI thinks Eternal will achieve this amid better assortment; expanding presence beyond its top-8 cities; and improving demand density in the next 7 cities (after Delhi NCR).
However, a slowdown in discretionary spending and negative externalities disrupting business operations remain key risks.
JM Financial | Buy | Target price maintained: ₹400 JM Financial said a “clear goalpost” of achieving consolidated adjusted Ebitda of $1 billion (in-line with its estimates) could anchor investor expectations going ahead and any directional delivery on these targets — particularly Blinkit’s growth and profitability trajectory — would drive stock performance.
The brokerage has broadly maintained FY27-28E NOV estimates for Zomato while edging up adjusted Ebitda by 1 per cent. For Blinkit, it assumes NOV CAGR of 46 per cent over FY26-29 in the business versus management guidance of 60 per cent+.
For Hyperpure, it has trimmed FY27-28 revenue estimates by 3 per cent basis the miss in Q4FY26. For Going-out, it has raised FY27-28 NOV estimates by 6-11 per cent while broadly maintaining margins. =================
Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.