Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities expects Infosys to report a 1% sequential (QoQ) decline in revenue, largely due to fewer billing days and typical seasonal softness.AI Quick ReadInfosys share price was trading over 1 per cent lower in Thursday's trading session ahead of its March quarter results announcement. The IT stock opened at ₹1,249 apiece today, as compared to the previous close of ₹1,268.60 on Wednesday. Soon thereafter, the stock touched an intraday low of ₹1,249.
The IT stock has remained under pressure in the near term amid weak market sentiments, poor discretionary demand and fear of AI-led disruption. Infosys shares have shed 4.58% in a week and over 23% year-to-date (YTD). The stock has given over 3% returns in three years; however, it has fallen 5.62% in five years.
Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) expects Infosys to report a 1% sequential (QoQ) decline in revenue, largely due to fewer billing days and typical seasonal softness.
“We expect stable revenues from the sale of third-party items. We expect stable margins as the benefits of rupee depreciation are offset by higher visa costs. Sharp decline in other income after completion of buyback to result in moderate net profit growth. We expect a large deal TCV of US$2.5-2.75 bn, stable on yoy comparison,” the firm said.
The brokerage also projects that Infosys may post revenue growth guidance of 3–5%, including the contribution from the Versent acquisition, and 2.25–4.25% on an organic basis.
It added that investors are likely to closely track factors such as the impact of the Iran conflict and GenAI-driven deflation on growth outlook, shifts in client decision-making amid rapid advances in agentic capabilities, appetite for large transformation deals that may initially weigh on margins, the share of projects transitioning from proof-of-concept to production, and potential incremental gains from Project Maximus.
Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, also believes that Infosys' Q4FY26 performance is likely to remain largely steady with only modest sequential revenue growth.
Srivastava noted that sequential margin improvement may provide some support, driven by cost optimisation efforts, better utilisation, and operational efficiencies. However, on a YoY basis, margins are likely to stay under pressure due to earlier wage hikes, lower contribution from high-margin discretionary projects, and an unfavourable revenue mix, she added.
“The key overhang remains the likely conservative FY27 guidance, reflecting ongoing global uncertainties, trade-related concerns, and cautious client spending behaviour. This may restrict any meaningful re-rating in the near term,” she said.
Srivastava further recommended investors to consider accumulating the stock on dips or after greater clarity emerges from management commentary on demand recovery, deal wins, and margin trajectory.
“Infosys continues to have strong long-term fundamentals supported by digital transformation demand and a healthy deal pipeline. A wait-and-watch strategy appears more prudent,” she said.
Commenting on the technical outlook, Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree, said that the IT stock has corrected sharply by 29% in just 31 sessions, followed by a rebound toward the 50-day EMA that failed to sustain, indicating weak follow-through and lack of relative strength.
Jain highlighted that the recent breakdown below the rising trendline at 1275 reflects continued pressure, but the stock now appears oversold after an extended decline. Such late-stage breakdowns often carry a high probability of failure.
“Price action around 1310 becomes critical—this level acts as a trigger for reversal confirmation. A sustained move above 1310 could negate the breakdown and drive a sharp recovery toward 1355–1360. Failure to reclaim 1310 would keep the structure weak in the near term,” Jain added.
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Vaamanaa covers business and stock market news. Started in 2020, she has been producing news on digital platforms for over 4.5 years now. She writes on markets, commodities, IPOs, and industry. She has worked for news channels like Jagran New Media and Business Insider India. You can reach out to her at vaamanaa.sethi@htdigital.in.