US-Iran war: Trump's idea of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has a structural hole — Iran's three Caspian ports remain untouched, giving Russia a backdoor that renders the blockade more theatre than tourniquet.(Photo: Reuters)AI Quick ReadUS-Iran war: Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz on Friday after a ceasefire in Lebanon, boosting hopes of a ceasefire in the US-Iran war. However, US President Donald Trump is yet to make any statement on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, so it will remain in force.
In fact, the US President said that Iran had agreed to never again shut the Strait of Hormuz. He also vowed to bring Iran's uranium back home to the USA., leaving the world guessing how effective his idea of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is.
“To evaluate the effectiveness of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, we need to look at how it would directly impact Russia, China and its allied nations. From the Russian perspective, both can use the hassle-free Caspian Sea route. However, from the Chinese perspective, the blockade will have a direct impact on the Chinese crude oil import from Iran because Beijing contributes around 90% of the Iranian oil export,” said Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental equity analyst.
Echoing with Avinash Gorakshkar's views, Nitant Darekar, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said that Trump's idea of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has a structural hole — Iran's three Caspian ports remain untouched, giving Russia a backdoor that renders the blockade more theatre than tourniquet.
“The real target is Beijing: China absorbs ~90% of Iran's oil exports, and disrupting that flow starves Tehran of its biggest financier,” Nitant Darekar of Bonanza said.
However, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, believes the Strait of Hormuz blockade will affect both Russia and China. He called this US administration's move a ‘master class’ because it will bring two major geopolitical players into peace talks.
“The US administration is well aware that a blockade will make Russia and China a direct party in the peace talks. If you look at the immediate reaction of both nations, it looks clear that neither Moscow nor Beijing was stable while delivering their reactions,” said Amit Goel.
Goel said the Caspian Sea route is not viable because most of Iran's oil infrastructure is in and around Kharg, near the Strait of Hormuz. Using the road logistics to depart oil tankers from the Caspian Sea route doesn't look possible in the current scenario, as the US satellites would catch those oil tankers, and either the US or Israel's missiles may strike them mid-way.
On how to look at the US President Donald Trump's call to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the failure of the US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad, Amit Goel of PACE 360 said, "This can be seen from two angles: one from the geopolitical set-up in SAARC, the other is the extension of the blockade in the Indian peninsula.
From the perspective of the blockade, Trump's call came before the announcement of the blockade. So, it's likely that two leaders discussed the sea route through the Malacca Strait. The blockade is for only those ships that are coming from Iran, not for those that are coming from other Middle East countries that stop at the Iranian ports. So, in the event of any Chinese aggression against the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the US might seek Indian support in blocking Chinese imports through the Malacca Strait.
"The Strait of Malacca remains a critical energy lifeline for Beijing, with a significant share of its crude imports passing through this narrow chokepoint—often described as China’s long-standing Malacca dilemma. This is where India’s geography becomes strategically relevant. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands provide India with a natural vantage point near the western entrance of Malacca, strengthening its ability to monitor and potentially influence maritime traffic in a conflict scenario," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Akshat Garg, Head of Research & Product at Choice International, said that India effectively holds its own “Strait of Hormuz” against China in the form of the Malacca Strait, through which roughly 80% of China’s oil imports transit via the Indian Ocean.
All these experts believe the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is quite effective, and a final conclusion in the US-Iran ceasefire can be expected in the next few weeks.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records.
While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat.
Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities.
Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).