Ultratech Cement share price today
Despite a “flawless” quarterly result by Ultratech Cement for the January-March period (Q4FY26), analysts remain cautiously optimistic of the coming quarters. Cost pressure and inflationary trends in the sector, due to the impact of the Iran war, are the reasons behind the cautious sentiment, they said.
Worsening sector fundamentals, ICICI Securities said, do not inspire confidence to pursue any earnings/ recommendation upgrade despite the robust quarterly performance.
“In particular, we are concerned about the elevated competitive intensity, potential impact of a significant capacity addition over FY26-28, and uncertainty over rising crude oil prices owing to the ongoing crisis in West Asia,” the brokerage said with a ‘Hold’ rating and an unchanged target price of ₹11,900.
For Q4FY26, UltraTech Cement reported a consolidated Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) of around ₹5,600.3 crore.
This was higher by ~21 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and ~43 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), driven by higher volumes and improved realisations.
However, elevated packaging costs and rupee depreciation affected Ebitda per tonne by ₹50.
Further, Ultratech Cement’s sales volume rose ~ 9 per cent Y-o-Y and ~15 per cent Q-o-Q to 44.7 million tonnes, while blended realisation improved by 3 per cent Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y to ₹5,696/tonne.
Overall, consolidated revenue grew by 12 per cent Y-o-Y and 18 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹25,799.5 crore, and net profit increased by 21.7 per cent Y-o-Y and 65.6 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹3,000 crore.
JM Financial Institutional Securities appreciated UltraTech Cement’s “strong operating performance” where consolidated Ebitda/tonne rose 11 per cent Y-o-Y and 24 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹1,253t, implying a sequential improvement of ₹245/tonne.
Moreover, UltraTech brand’s domestic volume expanded ~19 per cent Y-o-Y in Q4FY26 and ~15 per cent in FY26. Grey cement realisation increased 2 per cent Q-o-Q, while remaining broadly flat Y-o-Y to ₹5,034/tonne.
“We believe UltraTech is poised for structural improvement in return ratios over the next three-four years owing to rising asset turnover; low cost of expansion; and improving profitability,” the brokerage noted.
It has increased its FY27-28 Ebitda estimates by 3-4 per cent, and raised the target price on the stock to ₹13,850 (from ₹13,500), taking solace from the management’s upbeat commentary.
Notably, the management said it is eyeing a double-digit Y-o-Y volume growth in FY27 versus industry growth of 7-8 per cent Y-o-Y.
It also said UltraTech’s capacity grew from 65 Mt in FY16 to ~200 Mt in FY26 and the company plans to add another ~37 Mt capacity, reaching total consolidated capacity of ~243 Mt by FY28.
Going ahead, the management targets further capacity expansion with continued market share gains in focus.
“The capacity expansion target offers a safe zone amid the current volatile situation and remains a best play on India’s infrastructure story,” Emkay Global said.
The brokerage said Ultratech stock remains its top pick from the cement sector as it has faith in the company’s ability to deliver cost savings and consolidate/strengthen its pole market-share position.
It has raised FY27 Ebitda estimates by ~11 per cent, factoring in the “balanced guidance” on cost, volume, etc, while broadly maintaining their FY28 estimates. It maintained the target price ₹13,000 with a ‘Buy’ rating.
Word of caution
That said, while analysts think Ultratech Cement is well positioned to outpace industry growth, supported by strong brand name and ramp-up of recently added capacities across organic and inorganic routes, they cautioned against near-term challenges.
“Ultratech’s strong expansion pipeline enhances medium-to-long term volume visibility, with margins likely benefiting from ongoing cost-efficiency initiatives, near-term challenges remain due to inflation in the fuel basket for the cement industry,” noted Elara Capital.
It said despite price hikes and long-term fuel supply contract adequately supporting margins in Q1FY27, cost pressures are likely to intensify in Q2FY27.
Factoring in higher fuel costs, Elara Capital has cut FY27 estimates by ~11 per cent and FY28 by ~10 per cent.
“We cut our target price to ₹13,492 (from ₹14,553) and maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating. Sub-par demand, weak cement price, and an extended period of high fuel price are key risks to our call,” it said.