Gold, Silver Outlook: MCX gold prices have fallen more than 2%, while MCX silver rates have declined more than 6% this week so far.AI Quick ReadGold and silver prices in India traded lower on Friday, tracking weakness in international bullion markets, which are headed for a weekly decline amid escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East.
MCX gold rate for June futures contracts was down by ₹26, or 0.02%, at ₹1,51,735 per 10 grams. MCX gold prices have fallen more than 2% this week so far.
MCX silver price for May futures contracts was trading lower by ₹1,928, or 0.80%, at ₹2,39,585 per kg. MCX silver rates have declined more than 6% this week so far.
In the international market, gold prices edged lower and were set to log a weekly loss after a four-week winning streak.
Spot gold price declined 0.2% to $4,685.23 per ounce and has dropped around 3% so far this week. US gold futures for June delivery also eased 0.5% to $4,700.50.
As US–Iran peace talks remained stalled, crude oil prices surged, heightening concerns over inflation and the prospect of interest rates staying elevated for longer. Brent crude oil price has risen nearly 17% this week, trading above $105 per barrel, as the strategic Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed despite an extension of the Iran ceasefire.
“MCX gold trading above the ₹1.51 lakh mark reflects sustained safe-haven demand and a weaker rupee bias, even as global prices show signs of consolidation after a strong rally this year,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities.
He noted that gold appears to be entering a consolidation phase at elevated levels, with markets closely tracking US macroeconomic cues for direction.
Silver prices, meanwhile, mirrored the weak trend but remained more volatile. Trivedi expects the white metal to lag gold amid subdued industrial demand signals, with potential for sharper two-way moves if global growth concerns persist.
Investors will closely track monetary policy decisions next week from central banks in Japan, the US, the eurozone and the UK, along with accompanying commentary, as most are expected to keep rates unchanged.
“The ongoing geopolitical risk premium also needs to be monitored closely. The dollar index may face resistance around the 100 mark, while a weaker rupee could act as an additional catalyst for rally in the bullion,” Trivedi added.
According to Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst – Technical Research at Choice Broking, the near-term trend for gold and silver appears moderately bearish. She attributed this to rising oil prices, elevated inflation concerns, and a reduced safe-haven appeal, alongside continued geopolitical uncertainties such as blockades, naval activity and extended US-Iran ceasefire timelines.
Additionally, CME Group’s margin cut on COMEX gold and silver futures, effective after April 24, 2026, could boost market participation and volatility. A decisive breakout from key technical levels will likely determine the next directional move.
Gold prices are hovering around ₹1,51,100, below the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) placed at ₹1,52,100 and ₹1,51,100, respectively.
More noted that a breakdown below ₹1,50,000 could drag prices towards ₹1,48,300 – ₹1,47,500. On the upside, a breakout above ₹1,55,500 may trigger further gains towards ₹1,57,000 – ₹1,60,000.
Trivedi added that unless COMEX gold sustains above $4,750, near-term upside may remain capped, with immediate support at $4,600 per ounce and resistance in the $4,730 – $4,810 range. For MCX gold price, support is seen at ₹1,49,500 and resistance around ₹1,53,000.
Trivedi expects COMEX silver price to trade in the $71 – $78.50 range, while MCX silver rate may move between ₹2,45,000 and ₹2,55,000 in the coming week.
MCX silver is currently near ₹2,40,650, below its 20- and 50-day EMAs at ₹2,44,920 and ₹2,46,900.
More highlighted a short build-up in open interest, indicating bearish sentiment in the near term.
“A breakdown below ₹2,36,500 could push prices towards ₹2,32,400 – ₹2,29,300, while a sustained move above ₹2,47,000 – ₹2,50,000 may lead to a recovery towards ₹2,55,000 – ₹2,60,000,” she said.
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