Expert view: Ventura's Vinit Bolinjkar expects Nifty 50 to breach 26,000. He shares investment strategy and top stocks to buy.(Ventura)AI Quick ReadExpert view: Vinit Bolinjkar, the head of research at Ventura, believes the Nifty 50 may reach 26,000 to 27,000 by the end of 2026. However, several global and domestic factors will have to act in tandem to drive the index to that level.
"Geopolitical an crude oil risk remain but are fading. Long-term India story is stronger than near-term noise," said Bolinjkar in an interview with Mint. Bolinjkar also suggest investment strategies, keeping the current market construct in mind and recommends top stocks to buy from banking, power, and defence sectors. Edited excerpts:
The current environment is challenging but not unprecedented for India. Geopolitical risks, crude oil price spike, and FII outflows have historically been temporary shocks, with DIIs providing strong counter-buying support.
Markets have already seen sharp rebounds (Nifty surged nearly 3-4% in single sessions in early April 2026 on ceasefire news). Stick to disciplined, long-term investing rather than trying to time the bottom.
Accumulate fundamentally sound companies into quality large-cap and select mid-cap space. Focus on domestic consumption, capex, and export-resilient themes.
Weak rupee is a tailwind for exporters and makes Indian assets cheaper for global investors (potential FII return trigger).
Avoid leverage or concentrated bets; maintain 10-20% cash for dips. Prioritise sectors less sensitive to oil (renewables, defense, banking/financials over pure cyclicals like aviation and refineries initially).
India’s structural growth story (earnings CAGR nearly 12-15%, policy support, DII flows) remains intact. This is a volatility phase, not a structural breakdown—we still see upside potential once oil/geopolitics stabilise.
Yes, an end or meaningful de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict (ceasefire since nearly April 8, though strained by Hormuz issues and blockade talks) could trigger a relief rally, as seen in the sharp April 8 surge when oil cooled and risk appetite returned.
For sustainability, the ceasefire talks should progress, and crude should stay below $100 per barrel.
But the higher oil price impact will likely linger for at least the next 1-2 quarters—India imports 85-90% of its crude oil demand, so elevated prices feed into inflation, CAD widening, and RBI policy caution.
Expect some margin pressure on oil-marketing companies and many other sectors using crude derivatives as key raw materials, an indirect hit to consumption.
Markets price in “hope” quickly; reality (earnings impact in Q1-Q2 FY27) may cap the rally unless FIIs return and domestic growth accelerates.
We have seen a sharp selloff (Nifty dipped to nearly 22,182 in early April) followed by a strong rebound (now hovering at 24,000 zone as of mid-April).
Technically, early-April lows look like a capitulation point (historical April bottoming tendency + bullish divergence on RSI).
But it’s not confirmed until we sustain above key resistance (nearly 24,000-24,500) with rising volumes and FII inflows.
Make-or-break level is 23,000-23,500 (psychological + recent support cluster). A decisive close below this on high volume would signal deeper correction toward 22,000-22,500.
If the price stays above this range, and oil prices ease, it could gain strength and move toward 25,000 or higher.
We align with the 26,000-27,000 consensus. However, this recovery will be purely based on:
- Earnings growth (12-15% CAGR) from financials, capex cycle, and consumption recovery.
- Domestic institutional flows (DIIs already offsetting FII selling).
- Policy easing (low interest rates post-inflation peak) and structural reforms.
- Geopolitical resolution + rupee stabilization aiding exports/FII return.
- India’s relative outperformance vs. global peers in a slowing world.
Valuations are elevated but justified by growth premium; any correction creates entry points.
No, we are cautious on Indian IT sector. Indian IT firms have largely stayed service-oriented, with limited product innovation, R&D investment, and proprietary AI capabilities, risking margin pressure and limited revenue visibility. Future will depend on their AI partnerships, deal pipelines, and scale to adapt the AI.
Top themes (in order of conviction):
- Financials/banking due to Low interest rates + credit growth + low NPAs.
- Defense due to Atmanirbhar + export push.
- Power and renewables/green energy due to policy push + PLI.
- Select FMCG and pharma/healthcare (defensive + exports).
- Capex/industrials (selective) and domestic consumption recovery (realty, auto, consumer discretionary).
Top picks (quality + growth mix for one-year horizon):
- Banking/financials: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI.
- Power: Adani Power, Adani Green, Adani Energy Solution, NTPC, NHPC.
- Defense: PSU defense (e.g., BEL)
Overall stance: Stay invested, add on dips, tilt toward domestic + export-resilient large-caps. Geopolitical an crude oil risk remain but are fading. Long-term India story is stronger than near-term noise.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.