Dhaval Packaging IPO Allotment Chances

How IPO Allotment Chances Are Calculated

The starting point is 1 divided by the subscription times for a category. If retail subscription is 10x, the allotment chance is 1/10 = 10% — roughly 10 of every 100 retail applicants receive allotment. That holds where a category's minimum application size equals its minimum allotment unit, which is true for Retail and S-HNI.

It does not hold for B-HNI, who must bid above ₹10 lakh but are allotted the same minimum NII lot as an S-HNI — so that pool reaches about five times more applicants than the raw figure implies. Our estimates correct for this, and the correction is checked against published allotment documents rather than assumed. See the full method and the measured figures.

In oversubscribed IPOs, SEBI mandates that each retail applicant can receive a maximum of one lot. If the number of applicants exceeds available lots, allotment is done by computerized lottery. Applying for more lots does not increase your chances — each PAN gets equal probability.

Tip: Apply from multiple family members' demat accounts (different PANs) to increase your overall household probability of getting allotment.

How Allotment Works for Each Category

• Retail (RII): When oversubscribed, allotment is by computerised lottery at one lot per applicant. SEBI requires that, as far as possible, every applicant gets at least one lot — so if applicants outnumber available lots, a random draw decides who gets the single lot. Bidding for more lots does not improve your odds.
• S-HNI & B-HNI (NII): When oversubscribed, allotment is by draw of lots at the minimum NII lot — not proportionate. SEBI requires that allotment to each NII "shall not be less than the minimum bid lot", and only the shares left over after every eligible applicant has had that lot are distributed proportionately, which in an oversubscribed issue is nothing. SEBI splits NII into Small (₹2–10 lakh) and Big (above ₹10 lakh) sub-categories, reserved one-third and two-thirds of the NII portion. Because a B-HNI must bid above ₹10 lakh but is allotted the same minimum lot as an S-HNI, its real odds run roughly 5× better than 1 ÷ subscription times implies — see the measured figures.
• QIB: Allotted on a proportionate basis by the merchant banker; anchor investors are carved out of the QIB portion a day before the issue opens.
• Employee / Shareholder: Where a reserved quota exists, it is usually under-subscribed, so allotment odds here are often the highest of any category.

What Affects Your Allotment Chances

• Oversubscription level — the single biggest factor. A 2x retail subscription means roughly a 1-in-2 chance; 20x means about 1-in-20.
• Category you apply in — each category has its own reservation and its own subscription level, and B-HNI odds run well above what its raw subscription figure suggests.
• Number of distinct PANs — each PAN is one independent lottery entry; only one application per PAN counts.
• Total issue size & lot count — more available lots means more winners in the retail draw.