The market struggled to maintain its intraday highs on Wednesday as selling pressure intensified at those elevated levels. However, a positive takeaway was that every dip was met with a recovery, allowing the index to hold onto some of its gains. As the new series begins, the question remains whether the 23,000 level will serve as the critical pivot point for the trend.
Indian equity benchmarks opened FY27 on a strong note, with the Nifty and Sensex rebounding sharply after two consecutive sessions of losses. Optimism over a possible easing of Middle East tensions helped calm fears of rising crude prices and inflation, sparking a broad-based rally across sectors.
The Sensex surged nearly 2,000 points intraday to touch 73,964.58 before profit booking trimmed gains, eventually closing 1,186.77 points higher at 73,134.32, up 1.65%. The Nifty 50 also advanced, hitting an intraday peak of 22,941.3 before settling 348 points higher at 22,679.40, a rise of 1.56%.
Market breadth was robust, with 3,675 stocks advancing against 478 declines, while 90 remained unchanged. This rebound came after a challenging March, when both indices shed over 11%—their steepest monthly fall in six years—amid elevated crude prices linked to the Iran conflict. Despite recent volatility, BSE-listed firms added ₹13 lakh crore in market capitalisation.
The market's significant gap-up on Wednesday initially sparked hopes for an accelerated rally, but these expectations faded as prices pulled back to form higher lows throughout the day. Trading remained largely stagnant with stilted intraday moves, resulting in a dull session. As noted last week, price action is still too tentative to draw firm conclusions; the decline appears to be on hold as the market churns listlessly near current levels.
The rupee's weakness persisted, hitting new all-time lows beyond 95 per Dollar. Despite hesitant interventions by the RBI, the currency continues to slide alongside other global peers. Historically, a weak Rupee correlates with bearish or range-bound equities, a trend currently playing out.
Daily charts show that while bearish pressure is contained, a shift in bias requires Nifty to close decisively above 23,000. Despite a robust start to the April series, the outlook remains murky. Investors should favor stock-specific moves and avoid index bets until 23,000 is reclaimed. The RSI remains weak, and the market still needs confirmation from long-term trendline supports. Until quarterly results provide a fresh catalyst, expect continued knee-jerk reactions to US economic data.
Buy above ₹870, stop ₹830, target 945 (multiday)
Buy above ₹2480, stop ₹2400, target ₹2690 (multiday)
Sell below ₹1185, stop ₹1225, target ₹1105 (multiday)
Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.
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