Stock market recap: The markets opened with a sharp gap-up and closed significantly higher on Wednesday, owing to a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The geopolitical de-escalation triggered a sharp 14% decline in the price of crude oil, which fell below $95 a barrel, easing inflation concerns and improving India’s macro outlook.
Domestic sentiment was further bolstered by the RBI Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%, ensuring policy stability. The Nifty 50 surged nearly 4%, reclaiming 24,000, led by strong gains in auto, realty, and banking.
The Nifty 50 opened on a positive note at 23,855.15, driven by favorable global cues. The index extended its gains to an intraday high of 24,025.15, while the day’s low was recorded at 23,828.50. Buying interest remained intact throughout the session, and the index closed near the day’s high at 23,997.35, registering a robust gain of 3.78%.
The recovery from recent lows appears decisive, with the index reclaiming its 21-DMA, indicating short-term strength. The price structure suggests early signs of a pullback rally within a broader corrective phase. Sustained follow-through buying will be critical to confirm trend reversal.
From a momentum perspective, RSI has rebounded sharply to 53.89, moving above the neutral 50 mark, indicating improving bullish momentum after a prolonged weak phase. The indicator shows a positive slope, suggesting increased participation. Meanwhile, MACD remains in negative territory but is witnessing a bullish crossover, with histogram bars turning positive, signaling early trend reversal cues. However, the crossover is still at a nascent stage, and confirmation through sustained price strength is essential. Momentum indicators collectively point toward a short-term recovery, though broader trend confirmation is still awaited.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, market transitioned to a “Confirm Uptrend” from a “Rally Attempt.
Technically, immediate resistance is near 24,000–24,200, followed by stronger resistance around the 50-DMA near 24,500. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 23,300 (21-DMA), with a stronger base near 22,800–22,600. The sharp rally, supported by easing crude prices and a stable domestic policy environment, has improved sentiment. In the near term, the index may attempt to consolidate above 23,300 and gradually move higher. A sustained move above 24,200 could trigger further gains, while failure to hold key supports may lead to renewed volatility.
Nifty Bank opened on a strong note at 54,904.45. The index extended gains to an intraday high of 55,778.25, while the day’s low was recorded at 54,797.50. Buying interest remained consistent throughout the session, and the index closed near the day’s high at 55,703.90, registering a strong gain of 5.67%. The sharp rebound from recent lows indicates aggressive accumulation at lower levels. However, the index continues to trade below its key medium-term moving averages, suggesting that the current upward movement may still be a relief rally within a broader corrective phase.
From a momentum perspective, RSI has rebounded to 53.41, moving above the neutral 50 level, indicating improving bullish momentum after a prolonged weak phase. The indicator shows a positive trajectory, suggesting increasing participation from buyers. Meanwhile, MACD remains in negative territory but is witnessing a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning positive, indicating early signs of trend reversal. However, the signal is still at an initial stage and requires confirmation through sustained price strength. Overall, momentum indicators suggest a short-term recovery, though the broader trend remains under pressure.
Technically, immediate resistance is placed in 56,000–56,500, followed by a stronger hurdle near 57,500, which coincides with 50-DMA. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 53,800 (21-DMA), with a stronger base around 52,500–52,000. The recent sharp rally, supported by easing crude prices and improved global sentiment, has lifted the near-term outlook. Going forward, the index may consolidate above 53,800 and attempt a gradual move higher. A sustained breakout above 56,500 could trigger further upside, while failure to hold key support may result in renewed selling pressure.
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