MCX silver price crashes 47% from peak. Can it fall below ₹2 lakhs?(Bloomberg)AI Quick ReadMCX silver has corrected significantly from its lifetime high of ₹4,39,337 per kg. At current levels, the white metal is down by around ₹2,06,737, translating to a steep fall of nearly 47% from its peak. This sharp correction indicates a strong phase of profit booking and unwinding of bullish positions after last year’s rally, as per experts.
Silver prices witnessed a significant sell-off on Thursday, April 2, as rising geopolitical tensions following strong statements by Donald Trump regarding Iran led to increased volatility in global markets. On the MCX, silver futures fell by 4.48%, while the May 5 contract faced an even steeper decline of 7.8%, or ₹19,001, reaching an intraday low of ₹2,24,500. Earlier during the trading day, prices had peaked at ₹2,42,800, indicating considerable intraday fluctuations.
In the international market, spot silver reflected this drop, decreasing by $5.49, or 7.32%, to $69.57 per ounce. This sharp decline comes amid a stronger US dollar and changing macroeconomic expectations, which have negatively impacted precious metals despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Analysts expect volatility to remain elevated in the near term and advise investors to exercise caution, book profits on rallies, and avoid initiating fresh long positions at higher levels. Meanwhile, commodity markets remained shut on Friday, April 3, on account of Good Friday.
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, silver prices have come under significant pressure, slipping over 2% to around $73 per ounce, weighed down by a strengthening US dollar and rising oil prices. The decline follows escalated geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump signaled an intensification of attacks on Iran, raising inflation concerns and shifting market expectations away from earlier hopes of rate cuts toward a prolonged pause by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.
Trivedi noted that while Trump claimed US forces had nearly achieved their military objectives, he provided no clear exit strategy, instead indicating further aggressive action in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Iran denied seeking a ceasefire and maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.
The surge in the dollar’s safe-haven appeal has added further pressure on precious metals, with silver already down more than 20% since the conflict began on February 28. Looking ahead, Trivedi expects MCX silver May futures to trend lower towards ₹2,20,000 per kg, recommending selling on rallies. On the global front, Comex silver may find support near $65 per ounce, though a strong dollar is likely to cap any meaningful upside.
Further, Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, explained that silver has been consolidating in a broad range of ₹2-4 lakh since it topped out in January 2026.
"We believe that silver prices could continue to trade in this range for the near to medium term. Geopolitical tensions have made the world realise that supply chain of critical metals and minerals are at risk and each nation would like to secure them at any cost going forward.
Once the dust settles the demand for various metals including silver are likely to shoot up as there will be needed to replenish the stock. Thus, the long term trend for metals is up," said Sheth.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Dhanya Nagasundaram works as a Content Producer at LiveMint, specializing in news related to financial markets, stocks, and business. With over eight years of experience in journalism and content creation, she has honed her skills in data-driven reporting and market analysis. Her focus is on monitoring stock trends, initial public offerings (IPOs), corporate news, policy shifts, and larger economic trends that affect investors and market players.
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