Jio Financial Services shares in focus ahead of Q4 results, dividend announcement: What to expect and how to trade?(REUTERS)Shares of Jio Financial Services are in focus today, April 17, as the Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance group firm will announce its fourth quarter results and final dividend for the financial year 2025-26 (FY26). The stock was trading 0.27% higher ahead of the earnings announcement.
The non-banking finance company (NBFC) is building a diversified ecosystem across lending, payments, insurance, asset management, and wealth and is still in the nascent stages of its operations.
Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura, said to think of Jio Financial Services like a giant startup rather than an old-school bank. Even though they are announcing their Q4 results, you shouldn't judge them just by their profits. Right now, they are in "building mode", said the expert.
According to analysts, Jio Financial is expected to post a modest show in terms of profit growth due to continued investments and higher spending.
Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said for Q4FY26, expectations should remain realistic. The company is likely to report strong YoY growth in AUM and operating metrics, but profitability may remain relatively muted on a QoQ basis due to continued investments, according to his estimates. AUM increased nearly 5x YoY to ₹19,000 crore as of December 2025, indicating strong execution despite a low base.
He added that net interest income (NII), the difference between interest earned and expended, is expected to improve in line with balance sheet growth, resulting in earnings growth lagging business growth in the near term. Overall, he sees steady execution with improving scale, stable margins, and low credit costs, rather than a breakout earnings quarter.
Bolinjkar shared similar views as he finds that heavy spending to set up digital lending and payment systems could keep the profit growth low but he said that "what really matters is how many new customers they are getting and how many loans they are giving out".
Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL), the Reliance group company's profit could grow 30% YoY while NII may rise 61%, driven by strong AUM growth of 30% QoQ in Jio Credit. It said that commentary on NBFC growth outlook and progress in other businesses remains a key monitorable.
So far in 2026, Jio Financial shares have slumped 18%. In the absence of a turnaround in performance, the Reliance group company could end lower for the second day in a row.
According to analysts, Jio Financial is not an earnings play, and they advise against buying, hoping for a re-rating based on Q4 numbers or hopes of a big dividend.
Bolinkar said that buying the stock right before the earnings report is a bit of a gamble, as the stock usually moves based on what the bosses say about the future, not just the current numbers.
"If their plans don't sound exciting enough, the stock could drop quickly. It’s often better to wait, read the news after the results are out, and see if the company's long-term plan still looks solid before putting your money in," he said.
He also advised against getting your hopes up for a big dividend from Jio. "Since JFS is growing so fast, they prefer to keep their cash and reinvest it into the business. If they pay anything at all, it will likely be a very small "thank you" amount, not a big check."
Tiwari echoed similar views on the Reliance group stock, suggesting that the Jio story is less about near-term QoQ earnings momentum and more about building a large, integrated financial services platform. "Investors in Jio Financial are effectively positioning for future profitability, where improving ROE, rising margins, and cross-sell across its ecosystem could drive meaningful value creation over time," he noted.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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