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Indian equities caught a strong bid on Wednesday, with both the Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex rallying nearly 2%, as easing tensions in West Asia lifted investor sentiment. The mood turned distinctly risk-on amid growing signs that the conflict may be approaching a resolution.
As per reports, US President Donald Trump suggested the war is “close to over,” even hinting at a second round of face-to-face talks with Iran in Pakistan in the coming days. The prospect of de-escalation has injected fresh confidence into markets that have been on edge in recent weeks.
Since the conflict broke out, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex have slipped nearly 4%, underscoring the pressure on equities, while the India VIX has surged over 36%, a clear sign of heightened nervousness and volatility in the market.
On Wednesday, both Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.6% higher at 24,231.30 and 78,111.24 points respectively.
The ongoing recovery structure remains firm, with Nifty rebounding over 2100 points from its recent lows despite intermittent volatility, signalling a potential shift in short-term trend, believes Sudeep Shah, head-Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. Notably, the index has closed above its 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for the first time since 23 February, 2026, which indicates sustained buying interest from lower levels, he added.
“Going ahead, the 24070-24050 zone will act as an immediate support area for the index. On the upside, the 24350-24400 zone will act as an immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this band could lead to further upside toward the 24550 level.”
A bounce back was visible across the board with all sectors ending in the green. Among the top sectoral performers on the NSE, was Nifty Consumer Durables (2.9%) followed by Nifty IT (2.8%).
Meanwhile, the broader market outperformed the headline indices with Nifty Smallcap 250 settling 2.3% on Wednesday and Nifty Midcap 100 ending 2.4%.
According to Shrikant Chouhan, head-Equity Research, Kotak Securities, currently, the market is largely reacting to developments on the war front and movements in Brent crude prices.
Investors appear relatively unconcerned about Q4 earnings, as results are broadly expected to be in line with estimates. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continue to provide buying support, while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain cautious and have yet to adopt a positive stance on Indian markets, he explained.
FPIs were net buyers at ₹666.15 crore, while DIIs were net sellers at ₹568.98 crore, according to provisional data from BSE.
“That said, it appears that the worst phase may be behind us, with the market having likely bottomed out near the 22,200 levels.”
He is of the belief that volatility will moderate in the near term, supported by improving ceasefire-related developments and a reduction in the intensity of attacks. Brent crude prices have also cooled from their recent highs, although a degree of caution still persists.
Brent crude oil price has surged 27% since the war began and was trading at $93.64 per barrel, up about a percent on Wednesday.
Manish Bhandari, Founder, CEO and Portfolio Manager, Vallum Capital Advisors, expects markets to stay largely range-bound until September 2026, but believes “we are nearing the end of the consolidation”.
While war is undeniably disruptive, the "normalization" phase following such shocks is where the most significant market opportunities are forged, he added.
Looking ahead, beyond geopolitical cues, the market will likely zero in on two key triggers. First, the outcome of the ongoing elections, expected by the end of the first week of May. Second, any progress on a potential trade deal, if wrapped up quickly, could ease uncertainty and give investor sentiment a timely boost, said market participants.
According to Aniruddha Sarkar, co-founder & chief investment officer, Equinova Investment Managers, March quarter earnings and management commentary for June quarter as to how supply chain disruptions likely to affect numbers should be closely monitored.
Recently, a 10 April report by BNP Paribas said that the optimism at the beginning of the year has toned down. The brokerage firm has cut its 2026 Nifty target by 11% to 25,500, assuming some cuts in Nifty earnings and a valuation multiple of 18.2 times price to earnings.
BNP believes the conflict and its impact, which includes a likely margin pressure and potential demand destruction, are not yet reflected in the consensus estimates. “Over the past three months, the average earnings forecast for the Nifty 200 Index has been lowered by only 1.3% for FY27.”
Dipti has spent nearly a decade happily knee-deep in the fast-moving, occasionally nerve-wracking, and always fascinating world of stock markets, tracking everything from sharp sell-offs to surprise rallies, and the narratives that drive them. She began her journalism journey at Informist, sharpened her market instincts at CNBC Digital and Moneycontrol, and is now charting new territory with Mint. Here, she is exploring new ground, bringing together sharp analysis, on-ground insights, and a keen eye for what really moves markets.Before stepping into journalism, Dipti studied law and worked with a solicitor firm for close to three years, an experience that gave her a strong foundation in analytical thinking, contracts, and corporate structures. But the pull of markets and storytelling proved stronger, prompting a switch from law to journalism.She writes about stocks and investments, but that’s only part of the story. Dipti also teams up with market experts to turn complex trends into sharp, easy-to-understand videos, occasionally peeks at deals and acquisitions, and regularly picks the brains of industry leaders. Somewhere between earnings calls, market swings, and boardroom chatter, she’s always looking for the next story that explains what’s really moving the markets.